Recently I was listening to an Economist podcast (embedded below) where the discussion centered on where things would stand 25 years from now. When talking about what types of things would and would not exist 25 years from now the gentleman speaking said he was certain that books would exist but many current high tech products would not exist.

I started thinking about that and it makes a lot of sense. As much as we talk about new technologies killing old technologies the reason older technologies got that old is because they persisted even as new technologies threatened their popularity. I'm sure that people read many more books prior to radio and television. Many years after those innovations books are still here. It's an interesting discussion to have in a world where e-books are gaining popularity due to products like the Kindle and iPad. Will those innovations ultimately be the end of printed books? Or will books persist while a newer technology displaces tablets and e-book readers? You could fill an evening debating that topic.

I was thinking about this today as I boxed up some "old" 200 gigabyte external hard drives to send off for recycling. i would have sold them but the cost to ship the hard drives was about the same as what they're worth these days. A few years ago I couldn't imagine a 200 gig hard drive being worth only a few dollars. But that's the case now because you can buy a 1 terabyte hard drive for less than $100. Hard drives are getting huge in storage size now but even as that happens solid state storage is slowly gaining momentum. Yes, those spinning disks will be threatened with extinction one day due to storage on computer chips that is faster and consumes less power. So high technology tends to replace itself much more than it replaces very low tech products.

I believe that the trend of high technology replacing high technology will continue. High tech items tend to be cold and impersonal items. My iPad is awesome but when a new model comes along I'll sell this one or pass it on to a family member in favor of the new technology. Meanwhile I haven't considered giving away my favorite books in favor of Kindle editions. There's something about the feel and smell of a book that can't be replaced by technology. That's just one example. Look at the nostalgia surrounding vinyl LP records. A Beatles original LP in mint condition (decidedly analog technology) will probably soon be worth more than a 1st generation iPad (decidedly very high digital technology).

I have seen and heard many discussions about new media killing old media. I used to think that newspapers, for example, would eventually be killed off by blogs and other web based media. While I have no doubt that new media has lead to the decline of newspapers I think there will always be a place for low tech media. Meanwhile newer services and technologies (Twitter? Facebook?) will likely take down blogs before blogs take down newspapers. And so it goes folks.

I have seen a lot of blogs posting their favorite iPhone or iOS apps which seems to make sense since there will be a lot of new owners of iPhones and iPads after the Christmas and Hanukkah holidays. So in the spirit of sharing I decided to post links to a few of the apps that I really like and use regularly.

iPhone Only

Camera+ - $0.99 - This is a nice alternative to the native camera app. It has a timer, a grid (for taking level photos), and various scene and cropping tools. Also allows for sharing multiple photos on Facebook, Flickr, email and more. A recent update, including geolocation support, has made this app much better. It's important to know that this app does not apply to video.

AccuWeather Weather - Free - Much more visually appealing and informative than the native weather app. A recent update includes annoying video ads but they can be skipped. 

Skype - Free - Skype just added video calling yesterday and that makes it much more useful than before. This app allows you to cut down on your minute usage on the phone and now will even let you do video chat with someone sitting at a computer or on another iPhone 4 with Skype.

Google Voice - Free - If you sign up for a free phone number with Google Voice this app extends the features to your iPhone. You can't totally bypass the core phone features and use Google Voice for everything but you can do many things, including listen to your messages and send texts from your Google Voice number.

Red Laser - Free - This app allows you to use the iPhone camera to scan barcodes on products and compare prices with local and online stores. You won't find all products in their database but this app has saved me from purchasing things that I could find much cheaper elsewhere.

iPad Only

Magic Piano - $0.99 - Play piano using an on screen keyboard or by tapping flashing lights. They have a song book that includes some very classic piano pieces. Kids and adults will love it.

ABC Player - Free - Stream ABC television shows (with commercials) to your iPad. 

Amazon Windowshop - Free - Amazon.com re-invented their website for the iPad.

Weatherbug Elite for iPad - Free - A very nice ad supported weather application.

GoodReader for iPad - $2.99 - This app makes the iPad infinitely more usable. You can save many different document types (including PDFs and Microsoft Office files) for reading later. You can also access your Google Docs files for viewing. My favorite features are the annotations and searching withing PDFs.

Reeder for iPad - $4.99 - If you use Google Reader then this is an app for you. Syncs with your Google Reader account and offers many content sharing options as well.

The Wall Street Journal - Free - Although the app is free a yearly subscription fee is required to get full access. If you don't mind paying I think this is a very nice rendering of the paper.

iPhone and iPad 

Kindle - Free - Amazon has the best e-book store and the best e-book app. This is better than Apple's iBooks because you also can read your books on your computer and now even lend books to other people.

Twitter - Free - If you use Twitter then this is the best app to get because it's free, works across iOS devices and is very nicely designed.

Netfllix - Free - This is a must have app if you are a Netflix subscriber. Even if you don't use it to watch movies on the iPad it's the best way to manage your queue while sitting in front of the TV.

Flixster - Free - A nice companion app to Netflix, since it allows you to search for and add movies to your queue. Also a good app for non-Netflix users who want to search for movies, rate them and share the ratings. Connects nicely with Facebook.

Jump Desktop - $14.99 - Perhaps the most expensive app you will ever purchase. It really opens up possibilities for your iPad though. Jump allows you to connect and manipulate your Windows PC over the internet.

Air Video - $2.99 - This solves one of the most frustrating limitations of iOS. If you have many movies encoded but not in an iOS friendly format (such as .wmv or .mkv) this app, along with the companion desktop app, allows you to stream video to your device with conversion happening on the fly. This has worked very well for me and even supports subtitles.

If you listen to the shows This Week in Tech and This Week in Google on Leo Laporte’s TWiT network you hear lots of interesting commentary on tech topics. Unfortunately from time to time you also hear some ridiculous hyperbole, most of which references News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch. Murdoch is famous for many things related to media but is most well known as the guy who owns Fox News and The Wall Street Journal.

I have noticed that whenever Rupert Murdoch or one of his properties is mentioned on TWiT (the show) and TWiG Leo Laporte and Jeff Jarvis always take an extra moment to bash him. Jarvis typically calls Murdoch, “a dinosaur” while Leo likes to riff about Fox News’ female anchors and how Murdoch is an enemy of the internet. I find the charges against Murdoch as either a dinosaur or an enemy of the internet to be silly ones. He’s guilty as charged on the female anchor front but what that has to do with technology is beyond me. Anyway, Leo and Jeff have never really explained why they consider Murdoch to be so behind the times when it comes to the internet and technology. The best Leo could do was to use the fact that the Wall Street Journal has run stories about website and smartphone app information gathering as part of their What They Know investigative reporting series. And Jarvis loves to meander on about paywalls on news websites. Of course, one of Jarvis’ favorites, The New York Times, will be instituting a paywall in 2011. What dinosaurs!

Seriously though, I’m dumbfounded by all of this because I can easily think of several ways in which News Corp. has lead the way among major news organizations with respect to the embrace of the internet.

1. In 2005, years before Facebook took social networking mainstream News Corp. purchased the parent company of MySpace for $580 million dollars.
2. In 2007 News Corp. purchased Wall Street Journal parent company Dow Jones in a $5 billion dollar deal. Since the buy WSJ has retained their paywall, but also expanded their website to include journalist blogs, more video, user commenting and Facebook integration.
3. In the Dow Jones deal News Corp. also got All Things Digital which operates as a separate, web only entity focused on technology and the internet. More recently All Things Digital has beefed up their writing staff by hiring popular bloggers who cover a wide variety of tech topics.
4. WSJ also jumped on board the tablet bandwagon with a freemium app for both Android and iOS that offers a lower cost alternative to a full paper subscription.
5. Finally, word is that News Corp. is preparing to launch The Daily, an iPad only publication.

All of this sounds like anything but a dinosaur who has a vested interest in the downfall of the internet. It sounds like someone who has a heavy investment in the success of the internet across many platforms. So I must admit that I’m stumped at the criticisms from Jarvis and Laporte. It’s important for me to point out that I don’t think that all of these moves were great decisions or represent the best of what the net has to offer. Look at what has happened to MySpace web traffic over the last few years. And the success of the iPad only magazine seems to be a long shot at best.

Sadly, I suspect that the issue is a political one. Most people know that the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal and the commentators on Fox News lean to the right. And here in the U.S. you’re going to upset about half the country with that point of view. So I think that those guys could be much more honest and say so rather than skirting the edges and firing off meaningless one liners against Murdoch. It’s just a waste of time on the podcasts.

It pains me to admit that one of the things that I really dislike about the tech blogging world is the insistence of some sources (ones that I generally enjoy) to sprinkle their content with politically motivated diatribes. Cmon, now. We get enough of that on regular radio and television every hour of the day. When I’m reading (or listening or watching) web based media about technology I’m interested in opinions about the technology or the services. I’m not interested in the politics of the people who funded them.

While Leo’s network is large enough that the loss of a few subscribers who feel the way I do doesn’t mean much, the same isn’t true for smaller web properties. My advice is to stick to tech and avoid the politics of things if you want to grow and sustain your audience. Maybe I’m way off on this. Maybe more people want political attitudes mixed in with their technology blogs and podcasts. I don’t. I much prefer Irish bar rules, which include no discussions of religion or politics. Perhaps I’m too naïve. Then again the way the world is today we could all stand to have a more idealistic view of things.

Update: Jeff Jarvis adds his 2 cents below in the comments. He says his opposition to Murdoch's approach to the internet is not political and I take his word on that. I still disagree with the final analysis though.

Well, this isn’t what Google hoped for when they released their very hyped Google TV software. The “this” I’m referring to is the blocking of the software by major television networks. Since Google TV supports Adobe Flash in the browser (Chrome) included with the software many assumed that they would be able to access sites like Hulu and the network content sites. They can’t do it though. Many people expected that Hulu would find a way to block Google TV but I don’t think anyone expected other networks (in this case ABC, NBC and CBS) to block the software. Fox is the only major network that allows their shows to be streamed via the software.

This decision doesn’t make sense to many. All they are doing is blocking someone from watching video in a web browser. In fact, you could create a setup where you use a computer paired with a wireless keyboard to connect to your TV and use the web browser on said computer to access the same content that is blocked, including Hulu. So what gives? The networks are willing to let the hyper geeky types watch to their hearts content because they are the only ones who care enough to create a setup like I described. The other 99% of the population will likely use some magic box that has Google TV or perhaps Boxee to get to the network sites. And even though the people will see the same advertisements that the people on the web see, the networks still don’t want them accessing the web episodes (or “webisodes”) via their televisions.

I’m sure it still doesn’t make sense to you. I think that the networks want to force people to watch the TV stream because of things like Nielsen ratings and advertising rates. It’s more lucrative for the network to have a commercial viewed on TV than via the web. That means if web viewership explodes at the expense of the TV stream the networks start losing out on revenue. There’s also the issue of the relationship of the cable company to be considered. The cable companies need the network content to keep subscriptions up and the networks need the cable companies so they can get the most valuable shows viewed on the most valued platform which is the TV. So don’t expect the cable companies to care whether or not you can watch Modern Family episodes via the Google TV browser.

What all this means is that the value of Google TV is now limited due to the fact that the most valuable content is not available. So why buy the thing? Google probably cares less than Logitech and Sony who have invested money in deploying the technology in set top boxes and (in Sony’s case) televisions. I’m sure that both would like to see a return on their investment. Google probably has future advertising plans for Google TV so they’re supposedly in talks with the networks. Good luck with that. The TV networks are tough when it comes to their content. At least Hulu, which is owned by some of the networks involved, has opened up the possibility of access with their Hulu Plus offering. How would you like to pay $10 a month to watch TV on your TV? You wouldn’t but the networks would love you to.

So there you have it. The whole thing is a mess. If there’s any winner here I think it’s the video networks (including Netflix) who have seen fit to make their content available even if it is for a monthly fee. There are also many networks of video podcasters, Blip.tv and Blubrry among them, that have tailored their services to offer access via internet TV platforms. People definitely want more options when it comes to TV watching so they will seek out Google TV and other platforms such as Boxee, Roku, and the WD TV boxes to name a few. The quality content that can be found on those devices will gain more audience as a result.

I don’t know what the major broadcast and cable networks plan to do. My hunch is that they will fight this next wave of technology because it has the potential to really disrupt their traditional business. They better watch out though. The newspapers, with their decreasing revenues and circulation, have found that you play at your own risk when you ignore technology that consumers want to utilize. If people moved away from major newspapers online publications and blogs they can surely accept what content there is on internet tv platforms and leave the major networks behind.

It has been busy week for web conglomerates shutting down services that are not performing. Six Apart decided to shutter their Vox blogging service. Amazon is folding Amie Street into their current music download service. Finally, IAC Interactive is killing web-based RSS reader Bloglines. None of this is earth shaking news but it serves to remind us that where web services are concerned what is here today may not be here tomorrow. So if you rely on a particular tool or service it's always good to be aware of how well capitalized the service is and how well positioned they are for the future. For example, if a web service is not regularly posting updates or upgrading their system then they may be coasting until a sale and/or shutdown. Also, it helps to look out for other projects that are taking up the founders' time. For example, Amie Street has been actively developing Songza recently. That's what they will be focusing on for the foreseeable future. Each one of these closures does relate to a general trend for the niche they served though.

Vox was fashioned as a blogging service that also combined media and social networking. The problem for them was that serious bloggers have chosen the Wordpress.com service while social networkers have chosen Facebook. There's little room for a product that is in between. Meanwhile Six Apart has paid products like TypePad and Movable Type for more serious bloggers as well as consulting services. 

Amie Street was the most promising of these services because their bread and butter was helping independent recording labels and artists sell downloadable music. The problem for them was mainly the fact that indie artists have relatively easy access to digital distribution via iTunes and the Amazon MP3 store which no longer have digital rights management (DRM) restrictions. Amie Street was great place to find new music at low prices but those low prices ( from zero to ninety-nine cents a song) definitely hurt revenue prospects. Amazon was an early investor in Amie Street so it their move to fold it into Amazon MP3 is probably a way to recoup some of that investment by perhaps gaining some new MP3 store customers from the Amie Street faithful.

The Bloglines shutdown speaks to the new ways that people consume web content. A few years ago RSS was heating up but I think it has not grown enough to be able to make a business out of a reader. The main issue here is the fact that Google offers Google Reader for free. Google Reader displays very nicely on iPhone and Android devices. There are also some very nice iPad apps (Reeder is one of them) that allow you to stay in sync with Google Reader while enjoying an enhanced experience. So RSS enthusiasts have other options that are very good. The other thing is that people are reading a lot of news via Twitter and Facebook sharing. And just yesterday WordPress.com rolled out subscriptions to blogs which offers a more user friendly alternative to having to slap a feed into a reader to get updates.

Things are moving fast folks. What was hot today could be very cold next week. If you're running a web service you need to spend quite a bit of time analyzing the competition and trends in order to keep your ship pointed in the right direction.